ASEAN countries have recently released their economic data for the year 2023, and major economies have achieved steady growth, demonstrating strong resilience and growth potential. The International Monetary Fund previously predicted that the ASEAN economy would grow by 4.7% in 2023, while the Asian Development Bank predicts that the ASEAN economy will grow by 5% in 2024.

Analysis suggests that ASEAN has strong investment attractiveness and a demographic dividend. Currently, ASEAN countries are continuously implementing economic stimulus policies, promoting digital transformation, strengthening regional connectivity, enhancing economic integration, actively exploring opportunities for cooperation with China, and are expected to usher in more development opportunities.

The overall economic performance is full of highlights

According to the latest data released by major ASEAN economies, Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 5.05% in 2023; Vietnam's economy is expected to grow by 5.05% in 2023; Malaysia's economic growth rate in 2023 is 3.7%; Thailand's economy is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2023; Singapore's economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2023; Cambodia's economic growth rate is expected to be 5.6% in 2023.

Analysis suggests that the expansion of domestic consumption, accelerated recovery of the tourism industry, stabilization of commodity export prices, and rapid growth of foreign investment are important factors driving steady economic growth in ASEAN.

Currently, multinational corporations continue to expand their investments in ASEAN countries, and foreign direct investment is showing a rapid growth trend. According to a recent report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, green space investment in countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Cambodia increased by 37% in 2023. Green space investment, also known as new construction investment, refers to foreign direct investment in which the parent company establishes subsidiaries in other countries, often directly driving the growth of the host country's production capacity, output, and employment. Electric vehicles, renewable energy, e-commerce and other fields have become key industries attracting foreign investment in the region.

The accelerated growth of the tourism industry is a major highlight of the economic performance of ASEAN countries. According to relevant data, Thailand will receive over 28 million international tourists in 2023, an increase of approximately 154% compared to the previous year; Vietnam receives approximately 12.6 million international tourists, an increase of about 3.4 times compared to 2022; The number of international tourists entering Singapore reached 13.6 million, a significant increase from 6.3 million in 2022; The number of international tourists from Indonesia is expected to exceed 11 million, surpassing the preset target.

Many economists have analyzed that due to factors such as global economic uncertainty, ASEAN's economic growth is facing some challenges, especially weak external demand, which puts pressure on some export-oriented economies. Overall, the ASEAN economy maintained a stable growth momentum in 2023. According to Rajiv, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Markets Intelligence, the ASEAN economy is expected to continue growing in 2024 as domestic demand expands and the export situation of goods and services improves.

The potential for growth in the digital economy is enormous

Currently, ASEAN countries are vigorously tapping into the potential of the digital economy and accelerating their digital transformation. In 2023, the ASEAN digital economy will accelerate its development, with strong growth in areas such as e-commerce, food delivery, and online media. The proportion of online transactions in industries such as medical technology, educational technology, and automotive will continue to increase.

The "2023 Southeast Asia Digital Economy Report" released by Google, Temasek, and Bain&Company states that the total transaction volume of digital economy goods in Southeast Asia is expected to reach $218 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11%. The report also pointed out that online tourism in Southeast Asia is showing a positive growth trend and is expected to fully recover in 2024. Among them, the online tourism revenue in Thailand is expected to increase by 85% year-on-year in 2023. In addition, digital payments account for over 50% of the total transaction volume in the region, which also promotes the development of digital financial services. Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing regional countries in digital payments, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in total digital payment transactions in 2023.

In September 2023, negotiations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement officially began, covering multiple areas such as digital trade, cross-border e-commerce, cybersecurity, and digital payments, with the aim of accelerating ASEAN's digital transformation. ASEAN Secretary General Gao Jinhong stated that with the implementation of this agreement, the scale of the digital economy in the ASEAN region is expected to increase to $2 trillion by 2030, which will enhance ASEAN's vitality and competitiveness in the global economy.

Tang Zhimin, Director of the China ASEAN Research Center at Thailand's Zhengda Management College, believes that the development prospects of ASEAN's digital economy are broad. An ideal population age structure and stable economic growth momentum are conducive to promoting the development of regional digital economy. Chinese enterprises' investments in cross-border e-commerce, digital payments, and logistics facilities have also played a positive role. Cai Weicai, Senior Vice President of Thai Bank, believes that the booming development of e-commerce has created new and effective sales channels, becoming a new engine for promoting ASEAN trade.

Economic and trade cooperation with China is flourishing

Tropical fruits, Laos beer, cassava flour... During the Spring Festival this year, the China Laos railway freight transport was hot, and the special products from ASEAN countries enriched the Chinese people's table. There are also many Chinese tourists who choose to travel across the border by taking the China Laos railway train. The international passenger train of the China Laos railway is "hard to get a ticket".

The hot scene along the China Laos railway is a vivid portrayal of the booming economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN will continue to grow in 2023, with an import and export scale of 6.41 trillion yuan. ASEAN has maintained its position as China's largest trading partner for four consecutive years, and China has also been ASEAN's largest trading partner for several consecutive years.

Liang Zhihua, Secretary General of the the Belt and Road Commission of Malaysia, said that the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the construction of the China ASEAN Free Trade Area have provided more convenient conditions for trade exchanges between China and ASEAN countries, expanding the depth and breadth of economic and trade cooperation. He believes that deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN in areas such as cross-border investment and infrastructure construction has become a highlight of their cooperation.

China and ASEAN are important sources and destinations of investment for each other. The digital economy, green economy, and new energy are becoming investment hotspots, with new energy vehicles performing particularly well. In recent years, many Chinese new energy vehicle companies have actively invested in building factories in ASEAN countries. At the end of April 2023, SAIC Zhengda New Energy Industrial Park, covering an area of 120000 square meters, will start construction in Thailand, focusing on localized production of key components for new energy vehicles. In January 2024, Nezha Automobile signed a contract with a Malaysian partner to jointly build an overseas factory.

Tang Zhimin believes that China's investment in ASEAN countries promotes the upgrading of trade quality, promotes the deep interconnection of industrial and supply chains, and further enhances the production and manufacturing capabilities of ASEAN countries. Liang Zhihua believes that deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can promote industrial upgrading in regional countries, facilitate economic growth in Asia and globally, and provide more development opportunities for all countries.